Monday, April 23, 2007

None of the above?

One of my few treasured memories from my involvement in student politics was the look on the face of a particularly obnoxious member of SWSS losing an uncontested election to RON (re-open nominations).

May something similar be about to happen to the front-runners in the race to the Republican presidential nomination? There have been rumblings for many weeks that many in the Republican base are unhappy about having to vote for the best of a bad lot (in their view) in the primaries. For many true believers Guilani is too socially liberal, they don't trust McCain as far as they can throw him and Romney appears to be a serial flip flopper. Hence the excited babble about former senator and c-list TV actor Fred Thompson, who it appears is seriously flirting with a run.

My (uninformed) view has been that anybody entering the race this late (still a year to go to the primaries and it is already late!) would seriously struggle. All the best back room talent has been snapped up, and they would be far behind in the race to raise the dollars necessary to compete on "Super Duper Tuesday". However, the graph below gave me pause for thought.

It shows the latest prices on the Iowa Electronic Market for futures in the Republican nomination (click the graph for the latest prices). The sharp eyed will notice that currently the market is making A. N. Other the favourite to win the Republican nomination. Given that this a position generated by what people who know something about politics are willing to risk their money on I think it has to be taken seriously and I will be keeping my eye on it as things unfold.

PS for those with a greater feel for these things there is probably easy money to be made from the fact that the Iowa Market is so out of tune with betfair (where Guiliani is the strong favourite and Thompson F is an also ran).


Blogger Tom Papworth said...

You've overlooked the other potential wildcard: Newt Gingrich.

Apparently he, too, is ruminating on a bid for the nomination due to the unpopularity of the other candidates.

12:06 am  
Blogger Bernard said...

Newt is still obviously sniffing around but I don't really see him as credible, because he isn't electable. He's admitted to having an affair whilst he was leading the charge against Bill Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal. If his opponents couldn't make a charge of hypocrisy stick then they don't deserve to be running for town dog catcher let alone President.

Watch him win it now I've said that.

12:16 am  

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