Monday, May 14, 2007

Could the GOP split in 2008?

If the Lib Dems have a hard time breaking the two party mould spare a thought for third parties in the US. There are only 2 independents out of the 500 and odd members of Congress and as far as I am aware there isn't a single third party Governor in any of the 50 states.

Therefore I wouldn't hold out much for Chuck Hagel the anti-war Republican Senator if as he keeps hinting he does make an independent bid for the Whitehouse. Even with the backing of billionaire New York mayor Michael Bloomberg as a running mate its unlikely he could get enough traction to be able to carry enough states to win. However, a split Republican party would make life a lot easier for whoever ends up winning the Democratic nomination.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

He won't hurt the Republicans where they win (i.e the south), so it won't really matter. In fact, he might even sell better with democrats that republicans. It would be darkly amusing if he got a right-republican in by spoiling the democrats vote in say, Ohio.

11:55 pm  
Blogger Tristan said...

The two 'independents' caucus with the Democrats (Lieberman is one, the other is a socialist).

What the US needs is a liberal party - take the social and economic liberals (or conservatives as they call them in the US) and form a Jeffersonian style party.

I don't hold out much hope though...

2:04 pm  
Blogger Bernard said...


Given the fact that Lieberman has started raising money for Republican senators who the Dems are targeting I wouldn't be surprised if we see him flip parties at some point (even if he stays nominally independent).


Given the fact that Hagel is a dyed in the wool conservative apart from Iraq my guess would be that its more likely he would soak up the kind of voters who switched to blue dog candidates in 2006 but wouldn't vote for someone like Clinton. If he peels that kind of voter off the GOP in places like the Ohio valley the Republicans are sunk.

7:20 pm  

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