Sunday, March 25, 2007

The first sign the McCain campaign is in real trouble?

There have been rumblings for several weeks that John McCain's campaign for President may be in trouble. First he appeared to fall asleep at the State of the Union, raising questions about his age. Then Rudy Guiliani opened up a significant gap in the polls (although McCain still leads in New Hampshire).

This early in the electoral season its pretty easy to dismiss polls as merely being about name recognition. Bill Clinton was running in single digits at this point in 1991. Given the amount of flak that is going to come his way about his social views Guiliani's numbers must be seen as soft at this stage. Plus its widely acknowledged that McCain has a much stronger organisation both nationally and in the key early states. If you can't get your vote out high poll numbers mean nothing. Therefore I have been treating with a large pinch of salt the argument that McCain's bid for the presidency was over before it had begun.

However, the news that McCain has admitted the he will miss his fund-raising target for this quarter gave me pause for thought. American politics is all about the money. You are unlikely to run unless you are already rich, and as everybody knows US elections are hellishly expensive (the cost of the 2006 mid-terms was measured in billions of dollars). If McCain is struggling to raise money, it may be sign that the flat-footed start his campaign has made may have spooked his donors. If they desert him, his campaign is dead in the water.

1 Comments:

Blogger Tristan said...

The change in the primaries should help Giuliani.
They've moved some of the states which favour him to earlier in the process.

It should be an interesting race. The Democrats will probably be wanting McCain as Giuliani will take many moderate Democrats with him, especially if Clinton gets the Democrat nomination.

The stubbornness of the Republican party shouldn't be ignored though, much time has been spent building up the reactionary 'right' of the party at the expense of the moderate more liberal wing.

9:00 am  

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